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Vol 15, No 2 (2017)
Research paper
Published online: 2018-02-04

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The economic situation in Poland and the epidemiology of HIV infections

Józef Haczyński, Zofia Skrzypczak
DOI: 10.5603/51-56
Seksuologia Polska 2017;15(2).


Introduction: Number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections may be related to the economic
situation of countries. In poorer countries with a high unemployment rate, there are a growing number of
social pathologies such as adult and juvenile prostitution, drug addiction, crime, or increased risky sexual
behavior. The aim of the study was to evaluate the dynamics of changes in the number of new HIV infections,
new acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases and AIDS deaths in Poland, in relation to economic
factors, and to estimate the trend of new HIV infections in Poland in the next five years.

Material and methods: Based on available data on new cases of HIV infections and AIDS cases, AIDS mortality
and data on GDP per capita and unemployment rate in Poland in 2004–2016, the correlation analysis
was made and trend for new HIV cases in subsequent 5 years was assessed.

Results: A statistically significant correlation was found between GDP per capita and new HIV infections (r =
0.869 p < 0.001), not statistically significant correlation for new AIDS cases, and a negative, not statistically
significant correlation for AIDS deaths and GPD per capita. The correlation between the unemployment
rate and the epidemiological indicators was negative for new HIV infections (r = –0.53 p < 0.063) and weak positive and non-significant correlations for new AIDS and AIDS deaths. Trend analysis of new HIV infections
shows an upward tendency in the next 5 years.

Conclusion: Growth of gross domestic product per capita and declining unemployment may be one of the
factors contributing to the increase in the number of new cases of HIV infections. In the coming years, the
number of new HIV infections will be continue increasing.

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