The role of HATCH score in predicting the success rate of sinus rhythm following electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation

Abstract

Background: The HATCH score predicts the development of persistent and permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) one year after spontaneous or pharmacological conversion to sinus rhythm in patients with AF. However, it remains unknown whether HATCH score predicts short-term success of the procedure at early stages for patients who have undergone electrical cardioversion (EC) for AF.

Aim: The present study evaluated whether HATCH score predicts short-term success of EC in patients with AF.

Methods: The study included patients aged 18 years and over, who had undergone EC due to AF lasting less than 12 months, between December 2011 and October 2013. HATCH score was calculated for all patients. The acronym HATCH stands for Hypertension, Age (above 75 years), Transient ischaemic attack or stroke, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and Heart failure. This scoring system awards two points for heart failure and transient ischaemic attack or stroke and one point for the remaining items.

Results: The study included 227 patients and short-term EC was successful in 163 of the cases. The mean HATCH scores of the patients who had undergone successful or unsuccessful EC were 1.3 ± 1.4 and 2.9 ± 1.4, respectively (p < 0.001). The area of the HATCH score under the curve in receiver operating characteristics analysis was (AUC) 0.792 (95% CI 0.727–0.857, p < 0.001). A HATCH score of two and above yielded 77% sensitivity, 62% specificity, 56% positive predictive value, and 87% negative predictive value in predicting unsuccessful cardioversion.

Conclusions: HATCH score is useful in predicting short-term success of EC at early stages for patients with AF, for whom the use of a rhythm-control strategy is planned.